The past two years have been eventful with the pandemic throwing into turmoil project betting odds for niche markets. This year, we examine what the odds are saying as the outcomes of some big events.

We have used data from prediction markets to give us a projection of 2022. Sifting through the leading betting exchanges – Betfair, Metaculus, PredictIT and Smarkets, we have created a betting guide for the future.

What are the odds of Russia invading Ukraine? Will the US inflation rate persist? Can Tom Brady win another Super Bowl?

List of Special Market Betting Odds

EventOdds
US box-office revenues fall short of $11.3b95%
Republicans win House of Representatives82%
Norway wins the most gold medals at Winter Olympics73%
Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva becomes president of Brazil68%
6.5bn covid vaccinations are given globally for the year63%
Emmanuel Macron wins presidency of France63%
Deaths from Covid exceeds 2.5 million for the year53%
USA inflation rate excees 4%52%
USA economy grows at less than 3%46%
Boris Johnson relinquishes office at 10 Downing St46%
Omicron is the dominant variant by end of 202244%
Russia invades Ukraine43%
Bitcoin price exceeds $70k by end of year40%
Tech firms account for more than 25% of S&P 500 market value35%
400k or more American die from Covid during the year32%
West Side Story wins best picture at the Oscars24%
Crude oil prices falls below $60 per barrel at end of year21%
2022 is the hottest year on record25%
Brazil wins the FIFA World Cup14%
Tom Brady wins Super Bowl with Tampa Bay12%
Manny Pacquiao wins presidency of Philippines9%