Industry Comment / Schedule September 2021
|WEEK 2 NFL 2021||2021||2020|
|% Fav Wins||75.0%||87.5%|
|Average Pts Scored per Game||48||53|
|Pts Average Win Margin||10.25||9.94|
|Average Spread Fav Covered||11.50||9.36|
|Average Spread Underdog Covered||5.20||14.0|
Returning nearer to the averages of betting statistics, Week 2 of the NFL Regular season saw the favorites return to form after a Week 1 weak performance. 75% of favorites won their games, an increase from 50% in Week 1. Despite returning closer to the average, it still remains below 87.5% of favorite win when compared to Week 2 2020 season. This continues the run of favorites failing to live up to beating the spreads from 2020.
Though we saw more favorites winning this week, the number that covered the spread fell with only 66.7% when compared to last week’s 75% – four of the 12 winning teams were unsuccessful in covering. Having said this, with a higher overall favorite win this week, the outcome was that 8 teams were successful compared to 6 teams in week 1.
This week, we saw the highest spread for the 2021 season by the Cleveland Browns v Houston Texas -13.5. The Browns had a convincing win of 31-21, but fell short by 4 points to cover the spread. Similarly the Los Angeles Rams also failed to cover their -4.0 spread against the Indianapolis Colts. The final score being 27- 24, only a single point short to cover.
Season to date, 62.5% of favorites have won their games vs 75% from the 2020 season. 70% of the winning favorites have managed to cover their spreads, equal to the percentage of Week 2 in 2020.