Industry Comment / Schedule September 2021
|WEEK 3 NFL 2021||2021||2020|
|% Fav Wins||56.3%||56.3%|
|Average Pts Scored per Game||45||52|
|Pts Average Win Margin||11.94||10.81|
|Average Spread Fav Covered||14.22||13.56|
|Average Spread Underdog Covered||9.00||7.29|
Week 3 saw just under 50% of the underdogs win 7 of 16 games played. This result was the same as Week 3 2020 regular season and increased the average percentage of favorites winning in the first 3 weeks to 58% – a very strong start for sportbooks. In comparison 2020 regular season showed favorite win rates of 66.3%, 63.1% for 2019 and 65.6% for 2018, hence it is highly unlikely the favorite win rate return to the last three season averages as the season progresses.
Over the past four regular seasons, away teams have won more games. This season to date, each of the 3 weeks has seen exactly 50% of the games won by the home team. The average points scored per game is 45, was 6 points lower than Week 3 in 2020. This was equal to the lowest week of last season (Week 11). Both the average win margin – 11.94 – and the average number of points the winning favorites scored have covered the spread by 14.22, higher than the level seen in Week 3 2020 of 10.81 and 13.56 respectively.
7 of 9 favorites who won were able to cover the spread, equating to 43.8% of all games compared to 50% in Week 3 last year. The average spread for the week was -5.28 with the highest margin of the week in Monday’s Night Game with the Dallas Cowboys beating the -3.5 spread by 16.5 points, 41-21 winners vs Philadelphia Eagles. The previous day, the Bills beat Washington 43-21, 15.0 points ahead of -7.0 spread, the same margin recorded in the Broncos 26-0 win over the Jets in a game which had a -11.0 spread.