Industry Comment / Schedule October 2021
|WEEK 4 NFL 2021||2021||2020|
|Week 4 Games Played||16||15|
|% Fav Wins||62.5%||73.3%|
|Average Pts Scored per Game||47||53|
|Pts Average Win Margin||10.56||9.27|
|Average Spread Fav Covered||6.88||7.00|
|Average Spread Underdog Covered||3.69||2.27|
In week 4 of the 2021/22 NFL regular season 10 favorites (62.5%) won with 8 of these covering the spread by an average of 6.88 points. Although this is the highest win rate for favorites this season it was still down when compared to last year’s Week 4 of favorites winning 73.3%. To date for this season, 60.9% of favorites have won over the 64 games that have been played. In comparison to last year, it was 69.8% of 63 games, with favorites covering the spread at 54% of games.
The largest spread of the week also saw it beaten by the most points as the Buffalo Bills defeated the Houston Texans 40-0, resulting in 21.0 points ahead of the 19- point spread. The only other game which saw the favorite beat the spread by more than 10 points was Monday night’s game between the Los Angeles Chargers and the Las Vegas Raiders which saw the former finish 28-14 winners / 11.0 points ahead of the spread.
The best underdog performance of the week was the Arizona Cardinals who beat the Los Angeles Rams by 37-20 after the latter started 3.0-point favorites. Another three games saw the underdogs win with results over ten points better than the spread forecast. These included the New York Giants who, despite the New Orleans Saints being 7.0-point favorites, won 27-21.
The first game of Week 4 between the Cincinnati Bengals and the Jacksonville Jaguars completed the 49 to take place in September (48 took place in September 2020). During the month 61.2% of favorites won compared to 68.8% in 2020 and 21 winning teams covered the spread compared to 25 in September 2020. These look to be good metrics for the sportsbooks and we expect a strong football hold for the month.